State Capitol News
Wed December 2, 2009
Arizona predicted to lose more jobs
By Howard Fischer
Phoenix, AZ – A panel of economists predicted today the state will continue to
lose jobs well into next year.
Economist Lee McPheters of Arizona State University said that as
bad as things were in the recessions of 1991 and 2001 the state
did not lose jobs.
"In this current downturn it looks like we're going to lose
something in the range of 250,000, 275,000 jobs over a three year
period. So you have to go back into the 70s to find job losses at
all, 1970 and 1982. So this is just an economy that is reeling
McPheters, figured it could take four years for employment in
Arizona to get back to where it was at its peak in 2007.
Economist Elliott Pollack was equally pessimistic.
"This is a downturn of biblical proportion. Seven bad years. And
in 2014 employment will be no better than 2007."
And Pollack said all that has a ripple effect on the housing
"Ultimately, about 10 to 15 percent of job losses result in
somebody losing their house, which means that job losses today
result in somebody losing a house in 2010 or 2011."
And those homes aren't being snapped up as the net migration of
people to the state has slowed to a crawl.