Most of northern Arizona has received almost no measurable precipitation since the beginning of November.
Dry conditions, coupled with unusually warm weather, has local forest officials already warning of high wildfire danger across the region.
The National Weather Service says the last time the same months were so dry was 1918.
As a result, fire experts are nervous for what the rest of the year could bring.
KNAU’s Adrian Skabelund spoke with Coconino National Forest Fire Planner Jesse Causer.
Adrian Skabelund: Could you just describe the fire conditions that you guys are seeing across Northern Arizona?
Jesse Causer: Yeah, so it's dry. Our data sets basically go back about 25 years to 2002. But then when you work with the professionals at [the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration] and talk to them about some of the moisture tracking that they do over time, yeah, we're in a real tough spot. I mean, we're starting to set records all the way back to when they started keeping records at the Flagstaff airport. So we are now experiencing a moderate to high level of fire danger on the forest. That really does help to articulate the conditions on what kind of fire behavior you can see if all the conditions align appropriately.
AS: Generally speaking, January is, certainly for Flagstaff, our heaviest snow month. So can you just compare what you guys are seeing now to what you would expect to see in the standard January?
JC: Yeah, I mean, in a standard January, we'd really be in low fire danger. We'd have standing snow. We would have had moisture over the past couple months. So we'd be in that low fire danger, and really wouldn't have a standing fire danger problem in the higher country here above the Mogollon Rim. You know, portions of our forest that sit below the Mogollon Rim on the Red Rock Ranger District -- the Sedona, Village of Oak Creek, Camp Verde, Cottonwood areas -- they don't typically see the same kind of standing moisture like we do above the rim.
So, you know, [these conditions are] a tax on not only the people within the communities, but also within our resources. Folks that are having to maintain staffing levels more commensurate with fire season than we normally would this time of year, where our folks are able to take some breathing room and spend more time with friends and family because they're not trying to maintain that staffing the way we normally do.
AS: How are you thinking about, you know, later this spring and into the summer and what maybe this means for, you know, Coconino and moving through 2025?
JC: So it's very dry right now. We've had other dry winters, but ultimately, that's the crystal ball prediction. If we get some moisture [in] late winter and early spring, that moisture -- [in] that March, April time frame -- if we get any kind of moisture that's remotely significant to help tamper [conditions] and push us into that spring green-up, [that’ll] take a lot of punch out of fire season. If we don't then it could be a pretty tenuous spring. Lots of conversations about restrictions and early onset of restrictions. A whole lot more effort going into making sure that we have the appropriate amount of resources for the conditions that we may see. So I hope that spring moisture comes, because if it does, then we'll be all right, and it'll feel more normal, and not so dire. But right now, yeah, it's very disconcerting.
AS: What's your message to folks recreating in the forest, given the dry conditions, even though it's this winter season?
JC: You know, just for folks to pay attention to the products that we put out: the Smokey Bear signs and Smokey's arm, how it travels with the national Fire Danger rating system and the five ratings of low, moderate, high, very high, and extreme. So pay attention to those. Pay attention to the weather products that professionals at NOAA are helping to put out. And really pay attention to those fire weather watches and those red flag warnings, because those weather conditions coupled with how dry we're seeing it now, those are the days that people really need to pay attention to.
AS: Well, Jesse. Yeah. Thank you so much.
JC: All right, take care, buddy.
