SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Tomorrow, President Trump heads to the Middle East for the first sustained diplomatic trip of his second administration. In a mirror of his first term as president, his first stop will be Saudi Arabia. It is a nation in transition these days. Its aging monarch has handed power to his son and a much younger generation. The country's oil-dependent economy is trying to diversify, and Saudi society is opening up with many restrictions on women lifted. We're joined by NPR international correspondent Aya Batrawy, who is in the Saudi capital Riyadh. Hello.
AYA BATRAWY, BYLINE: Hi, Scott.
DETROW: So you have been reporting on Saudi Arabia for over a decade, and you have witnessed all of those changes that I just laid out. Tell us what all of those shifts mean for U.S.-Saudi relations under Trump.
BATRAWY: Yeah, I mean, a decade ago, this was a really different place - very conservative. You wouldn't hear music in public spaces like restaurants or coffee shops. There was no mixing of unrelated men and women, so, you know, you wouldn't see men and women sitting at a coffee shop together or at a park. But now, when I'm walking around, I'm seeing women, you know, showing their hair, showing their faces, wearing colorful, long abayas - you know, those beautiful robes women here wear - driving cars. It's a completely different place, it feels like.
And these changes started about eight years ago during Trump's actual - his first term, when the crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, was rising to power. And he had really aggressive domestic and foreign policies at the time. You know, he went after critics for years, among the most prominent was the killing by his men of Saudi critic and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Turkey. So he was globally criticized, but he maintained the support of Trump at the White House those years. So what that means now for U.S.-Saudi relations between Trump and the crown prince is that they stretch back. And, you know, the crown prince has said he's willing to invest $600 billion of Saudi Arabia's money into the U.S. over the next four years under Trump.
DETROW: That is a lot of money, and this sounds like a high-stakes meeting. So how are the preparations going, and what are you seeing ahead of the president's arrival?
BATRAWY: I mean, you can expect a lot of pomp and ceremony around Trump's arrival, which is something the president is known to like and appreciate. I already saw some of the prep happening here with, like, streets shutting down around the areas he'll be touring for security purposes and getting them all ready. But we can also expect major business deals. There's a big U.S.-Saudi investment forum happening when he's here. But the real money is going to be in arms sales to Saudi Arabia. Trump said it could be up to $100 billion in potential deals of Saudi Arabia purchasing U.S. defense weaponry. Elizabeth Dent, an analyst at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, says this wasn't on the table under Biden.
ELIZABETH DENT: For the Saudis, they're really hoping for a really, really big announcement - air, land, sea, training, munitions, upgrades - all sorts of different defense technology pieces that they have not been able to pursue for the last few years.
DETROW: OK, so you told us what to expect. What should we not expect?
BATRAWY: Don't expect to hear a new Abraham Accord deal, like, a deal that normalizes ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. You know, Saudi Arabia has been very consistent and clear that they need to see the war in Gaza stopped, the war that's killed tens of thousands of Palestinians. They need to see that come to an end, and they need to see a pathway to a Palestinian state before they establish ties with Israel. But the current far-right government in Israel is opposed to both. Also, don't expect Trump to also verbally, publicly push that Gaza Rivera plan he floated around, where the U.S. takes over Gaza and expels all the Palestinians permanently out. That's very unpopular in this region and opposed by those in power.
DETROW: OK, so let's look forward a little bit. After Saudi Arabia, the president heads to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. These are countries that also want things from the U.S. So walk us through what their asks might be.
BATRAWY: So similarly, they're also going to be wanting to talk investment and business deals and also, of course, defense deals with the U.S. But the three Gulf states are also concerned about tensions rising again with Iran. You know, they want Trump to give nuclear talks with Iran time. And these indirect talks have been taking place, but Gulf states don't want a war that could draw them and their economies in. You know, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia - they want to see curbs on Iran's missile program, its nuclear enrichment, its proxies in the region. But they don't want the kind of maximum pressure tactics that we saw under Trump's first term that put the region on edge, if you remember.
DETROW: Aya, these are all major issues. A lot of them have been looming for years. Do Gulf rulers feel confident that President Trump can deliver on these things?
BATRAWY: You know, they do see Trump as more reliable than Biden. Ali Shihabi is a Saudi analyst, and he told me Gulf states want to see more American involvement, not less.
ALI SHIHABI: Saudi Arabia wants America to continue to be engaged in the region because American engagement is certainly a guarantee of keeping Iran under control. And I think Trump coming to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf now, you know, is a manifestation of that American involvement.
BATRAWY: So Scott, these countries they see Russia and China as major global powers as well, and they have close ties with both, but the U.S. remains the main security guarantor in this region. And so what these Gulf Arab states are looking for is to be heard, consulted and seen as strategic partners by the U.S.
DETROW: That is NPR's Aya Batrawy joining us from Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Thank you.
BATRAWY: Thanks, Scott.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
