AILSA CHANG, HOST:
There's a cliche in politics that the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. Well, that day is finally here. And we're about to get a whole lot of answers, real answers based on actual votes cast. Here to talk us through what to expect as the results come in are NPR senior political correspondents Tamara Keith and Mara Liasson. Hey to both of you.
TAMARA KEITH, BYLINE: Hello.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Hi there.
CHANG: Hello. OK. So we're finally here, but I do want to skip forward for a moment to talk about how NPR declares who wins. Now, we rely on the Associated Press to make race calls. Tell us how this works.
KEITH: Yeah. The AP will have more than 5,000 journalists working before and after polls close, gathering returns from every state, county, city, township and parish. It is a massive journalistic undertaking.
CHANG: Yes.
KEITH: And they supplement reports from the field with data delivered by elections officials through their websites and other means. We had David Scott, who runs AP elections, on the NPR Politics Podcast today, and he said they used the term race call instead of calling it a projection because their standard is that when they call a race, it is certain that the candidate has won.
DAVID SCOTT: The certainty required for us is that word. It's certainty. We are certain, based on all the data on all the evidence that we are looking at, that the trailing candidates can't catch up.
KEITH: And they've been quite accurate. He told us that of 12,000 races they've called this year in primaries and other elections, they only got four of the calls wrong.
CHANG: Wow.
KEITH: So they aren't always first, but they always want to be right, and that is also NPR's philosophy.
CHANG: Yes. We value accuracy utmost. Mara, what are the top questions for you about tonight that you hope to get answered?
LIASSON: Well, addition to the results and finding out whether the Democrats take the House and/or the Senate, and if they do, by what kind of margin, I think tonight is going to answer a handful of questions. No. 1, were the polls wrong? If so, how? No. 2, which is more powerful - the structural advantages that Republicans had, like partisan gerrymandering and tremendous amounts of money, or the fundamentals, the fact that the incumbent is so unpopular? Donald Trump is at about 38% approval rating. That is the bare metal base (ph) of the Republican Party. His two most important initiatives are both extremely unpopular - tariffs and the war in Iran.
And we're going to find out, in addition to that, whether Black Americans turn out in massive numbers and help Democrats. We're going to find out whether noncollege white voters stay home and hurt Republicans or turn out and help them. Right now, white noncollege voters' approval rating of Donald Trump is around 50%. That is very low for your most loyal demographic.
CHANG: And, Tam, what about you? What are you watching most closely tonight?
KEITH: Well, everything Mara mentioned, of course. But in particular, I'll be looking at those districts that were redrawn as part of the president's push for mid-decade redistricting. They've already proven to be some of the most competitive and expensive House races this cycle. So how do these races turn out, and will it have been worth it for Republicans in the end?
I'm also watching some key races where there are more left-leaning, populist progressive candidates running. Some are explicitly associated with the Democratic Socialists of America, or DSA. Others are not. We know that they are going to win in bright blue, heavily Democratic districts in New York City and Philadelphia. But what about Michigan's 7th Congressional District, which is a swing district in a swing state, or California's 22nd Congressional District in the Central Valley of California, where I grew up, which is a very narrowly divided district.
CHANG: And a few states - I'm talking about, like, Florida and South Carolina - they're going to be reporting early in the night, of course, because of where they're geographically located. So they could give us a hint of how the night is going to go, right, Mara?
LIASSON: That's right. You don't have to stay up all night. You can get a pretty good indication of whether it's going to be a good or great night for Democrats from these early states. Now, in Florida, Democrats might have a hard time winning the Senate race and the gubernatorial race there, but if they keep those margins very small, that could mean a good night for Democrats. In South Carolina, another really red state, if the Republican, Darline Graham, who was Trump's handpicked successor to her brother, the late Lindsey Graham, if she does poorly or even loses, that tells you it's going to be a very rough night for Republicans.
KEITH: And I will just add about Florida, that is one of those states that redrew its lines to favor Republicans.
CHANG: Right.
KEITH: So there are some key races, including Florida 14 and Florida 25, where the Democratic incumbents in those districts are running in places where President Trump won by 10 points two years ago. If they win there, that gives us a strong sense of how the night is going for the parties.
LIASSON: And if that happens, that would be an example of a gerrymander that backfires and turns into a dummymander (ph).
CHANG: A dummymander, OK, good word. All right, after Florida, after South Carolina, what are the states to watch for?
LIASSON: Well, polls close in Ohio at 7:30. They close in Texas at 8. Those are two marquee Senate races. If Democrats have any hope of taking the majority in the Senate, they need to win at least one or both of those. Texas is one of two states, along with North Carolina, where many Republicans feel Donald Trump made their lives a lot harder. He forced both Republican Senate incumbents out of the running in those states. He threatened Thom Tillis in North Carolina with a primary. He defeated John Cornyn of Texas with the primary.
If he hadn't decided to go after the Republican incumbents in both those states because he felt they weren't loyal enough to him, we might not be talking tonight about Democrats taking the Senate. And that tells you how much this election has been about Donald Trump, about his whims, his grievances and his desires.
CHANG: Can we talk about that real quick? Because midterms usually are seen as referendums on the president. What have the dynamics been like when it comes to President Trump?
KEITH: The president and his political team had this novel theory that his base of voters is only excited by him, so they had to convince Republicans to vote as if he was on the ballot. The question tonight is whether everyone is going to vote as if Trump was on the ballot and whether that's a good thing or not.
LIASSON: You know, Donald Trump is a turnout machine for both parties.
CHANG: That is NPR's Mara Liasson and Tamara Keith. Thank you to both of you so much.
KEITH: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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