There's a dichotomy shaping up in this midterm election year.
The national political landscape could hardly look worse for President Trump and Republicans.
At the same time, the GOP is suddenly resurgent in the redistricting fight, getting significant wins this week in Virginia and Tennessee that could soften the blow they might have suffered without them.
The national mood is very much against Republicans right now
The latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll underscores the headwinds for the GOP. Trump has just a 37% approval rating, with 59% disapproving. That's the worst score in the Marist poll in either of Trump's terms.
Fifty-one percent of respondents in the poll said they strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing, indicating the intensity of opposition Republicans are facing.
About eight in 10 respondents said gas prices are straining their household budgets, and 63% blame Trump for that increase given the war with Iran.
Americans largely don't feel the economy is working well for them — 63% said so in the latest NPR poll, and Trump is suffering politically for it. His economic approval is down to 35% and, on his handling of Iran, just 33% approve.
There are few things more indicative of midterm results than presidential approval ratings
Presidents' parties have a hard time in midterms. Only twice since World War II has the president's party gained seats in the House — in 1998 Democrats picked up five, and in 2002, after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Republicans netted eight.
It's a fact that Trump is aware of. He's mentioned it several times since being sworn in for this second term.
"Even when you have a great president, they tend to lose the midterms," Trump said last month on Fox Business. "It doesn't make sense to me, so we're going to try turning it around."
The reason for the disadvantage is midterms are the first national elections in which those aligned with the party out of power can register their frustration. Supporters of the president's party often become more complacent after a presidential election, given their preferred party is running things.
Just how bad has it been over the years? Presidents' parties have lost, on average, 27 House seats and four Senate seats during midterm elections since WWII.
It's even worse when a president is below 50% approval, as Trump is now. The average losses in the House jump to 33 when that's the case. Showing the disaffection for politics and partisanship in this modern era, each of the last five midterm elections have seen presidents with ratings below 50%.
(Average net losses in the Senate are not affected by the president's approval rating.)
Key groups that approved of the job Trump was doing a year ago no longer do
Trump's unpopularity is evident with voter groups that were key pillars to his 2024 presidential success.
Compared to February 2025, white voters without college degrees, parents of children who are under 18, those who make less than $50,000 a year and even adults in the South now give a net-negative job approval rating of the president.
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Notably, several crossover groups that swung toward Trump in the 2024 presidential election — such as millennials, Latinos and many younger voters — have also heavily moved away from this president.
The shifts toward Democrats by white people without college degrees and adults in the South are particularly striking.
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White adults without college degrees voted for Trump by 34 points, according to 2024 exit polls, but are now saying they'll vote for a Republican candidate in their congressional district this fall by just 6 points, according to this week's NPR poll. That's a 28-point shift.
Adults in the South went from voting for Trump by 13 points in 2024 to now saying they're 5 points more likely to vote for a Democratic congressional candidate.
Democrats also have the edge on enthusiasm
Midterm elections have had, on average, a 30% dropoff in turnout from the previous presidential election year, going back to 1992. So enthusiasm and activism are even more important in midterms than presidential elections.
Democrats currently have the enthusiasm edge. The NPR poll showed 61% of Democrats and those who voted for Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024 are "very enthusiastic" to vote in these midterms.
When it comes to Republicans, 53% described themselves as "very enthusiastic," and it was even lower — 47% — with Trump voters specifically. Republicans have historically struggled to turn out Trump's base when he's not on the ballot.
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Among key voting groups, white voters with college degrees, who have trended in Democrats' direction in recent years, are among the most enthusiastic to vote, at 64%.
The most enthusiastic pro-Trump group is white men without degrees, at 59%. White women without degrees have lower approval ratings of Trump and are less enthusiastic. Forty-five percent of them say they're "very enthusiastic" to vote.
Parents who have children under 18 voted for Trump by 8 points in the 2024 election, but only 40% of them now say they're "very enthusiastic" about this November.
Democrats face big challenges, too
In most other years, these kinds of approval and enthusiasm numbers would point to a wave election.
And, yes, overall Democrats appear to be in a good position to pick up the House. The national environment has even put the Senate in reach for them, even if it is still a reach.
But there are some important factors that could lower their ceiling, namely depressed enthusiasm with some key groups, the fact that there are fewer competitive districts than ever before and the state of the redistricting battle.
While young voters, as well as Black and Latino voters, all have very low approval ratings of Trump, they are among the least likely to be very enthusiastic about voting in November.
Young voters in particular have a strong antipathy toward Trump, but they also have not had a very high opinion of Democratic Party leadership over the past year. That's led to lower favorability ratings overall for Democrats than Republicans in many polls.
Perhaps the most important structural development is that Republicans got a few big wins on redistricting recently. The U.S. Supreme Court struck another blow to the Voting Rights Act, which could lead to a reduction of Black-majority, Democratic districts.
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Shortly after the court's decision, Louisiana suspended its primary elections to redraw its maps. Republicans could net two more seats out of that state, as a result.
This week, Tennessee Republicans went ahead with a new map that seeks to eliminate the one Democratic-held seat in the state.
And the Virginia state Supreme Court delivered a gut punch to Democrats on Friday, invalidating the results of a ballot initiative supporting redistricting that would have likely netted Democrats four seats.
Florida Republicans, meanwhile, are pushing ahead with a map that could get Republicans more seats as well.
There's no telling exactly how many seats Republicans could gain, but an estimate from the Cook Political Report shows, so far, the GOP stands to gain anywhere from five to 14 seats from redistricting.
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