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Arizona Emerges as a Toss-Up State in the Presidential Election

Many political analysts now consider Arizona a toss-up state in this year’s presidential election. As Arizona Public Radio’s Ryan Heinsius reports, a new poll shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a slight lead over Republican Donald Trump.

The poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights gives Clinton a lead of about 3 percent. That’s within the margin of error for the poll, but it shows Arizona becoming more competitive following last week’s Democratic National Convention.

In addition, the website RealClear Politics, which averages polls, recently moved Arizona from leaning Republican to a toss-up state.’s 2016 election forecast, however, gives Trump more than a 50 percent chance of winning Arizona.

The Grand Canyon State has 11 electoral votes, and 270 are needed to win the White House. Since 1952, Arizona has voted for the GOP nominee all but once. The last Democrat to carry the state was Bill Clinton in 1996.  

Ryan Heinsius was named interim news director and managing editor in January 2024. He joined KNAU's newsroom as an executive producer in 2013. He covers a broad range of stories from local, state and tribal politics to education, economy, energy and public lands issues, and frequently interviews internationally known and regional musicians. Ryan is an Edward R. Murrow Award winner and a Public Media Journalists Association Award winner, and a frequent contributor to NPR's Morning Edition, All Things Considered and national newscast.
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