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More than 50 million people have already voted. Some trends are emerging

AILSA CHANG, HOST:

More than 50 million people have already cast ballots in this year's election. This continues a long-term trend of people choosing to vote early when offered. So is there anything this early voting data can tell us, or is it too early to draw any meaningful conclusions about the election? Well, NPR's Ashley Lopez has some answers and joins us now. Hey, Ashley.

ASHLEY LOPEZ, BYLINE: Hey there.

CHANG: OK, so what can you tell us so far about these 50 million voters who've already cast their ballots?

LOPEZ: Yeah. So, I mean, well, early voting is just a slice of the electorate, right? And different states provide different information about who has voted early. But what we do know is this. One, this is a mix of people who have voted early in person and by mail. And two, many of these early voters are people who had their minds made up, probably months ago, and were likely excited to vote as early as possible. And, of course, this election could be decided by those lower-propensity voters who are making up their mind closer to Election Day.

CHANG: Right.

LOPEZ: And we just don't know how big that pool of voters is yet or, of course, who they will vote for.

CHANG: OK. Well, what about how people are voting? Is it more in person or by mail? What do the numbers say about that?

LOPEZ: Well, voting methods are a little different compared to four years ago. As everyone remembers, 2020 was a weird year for voting because there was a pandemic, so...

CHANG: Right.

LOPEZ: ...Many states opened up access to mail voting just for that election, and many voters took advantage of that. This year, depending where you live, access to mail-in voting might have increased or decreased. But overall, fewer voters were always expected to vote by mail compared to four years ago. So we have seen a shift somewhat away from mail voting to an in-person early voting.

CHANG: So I'm thinking many people looking at these numbers might be wondering what it means for their preferred candidate.

LOPEZ: Yeah.

CHANG: Like, what can you tell us about the party breakdown here?

LOPEZ: Yeah. Well, I mean, in the first few days of early voting, we did see a higher turnout among Republican voters voting early in person compared to the last presidential election. Historically speaking, conservative voters tend to vote later in elections, largely on Election Day. So this is a pretty significant shift in voting patterns that, you know, may be attributed to a push from Republican Party leaders to get their voters to vote earlier.

CHANG: OK, so a shift earlier among some Republicans. What about Democrats?

LOPEZ: You know, I should say all this early voting data comes from Michael McDonald at the University of Florida. And I talked to him, and he said while Democratic turnout started a little lower, it is picking up in these later early voting days.

MICHAEL MCDONALD: If the past is a guide - and I think, in some ways, it can be - we know that, in this coming week, we're going to see more younger voters, more voters who don't necessarily affiliate with a political party and more diverse voters.

LOPEZ: And, of course, the voters he's talking about there tend to lean towards the Democratic coalition, although, lately, young men and men of color have been shifting a bit more towards the Republican Party lately.

CHANG: OK. So we're talking about data on party preferences, but I am curious. Like, what about gender? - because isn't gender expected to be a key divide in this election?

LOPEZ: Yeah, so it's going to be a while before we get complete demographic data. That always takes a while. But from the information we do have, there is a somewhat larger share of women who have voted early so far. McDonald told me this isn't surprising, though, because women tend to vote earlier. But he says he expects to see men vote in higher numbers on Election Day, which is similar to past elections. And I just want to make a finer point about this early voting data. As Michael McDonald pointed out, a lot can change from here until Election Day. This snapshot we are getting in early voting is not necessarily what the electorate is going to look like when voting ends.

CHANG: That is NPR's Ashley Lopez. Thank you, Ashley.

LOPEZ: Yeah, thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Ashley Lopez
Ashley Lopez is a political correspondent for NPR based in Austin, Texas. She joined NPR in May 2022. Prior to NPR, Lopez spent more than six years as a health care and politics reporter for KUT, Austin's public radio station. Before that, she was a political reporter for NPR Member stations in Florida and Kentucky. Lopez is a graduate of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and grew up in Miami, Florida.