The Coconino County Flood Control District will present a pair of studies to its Board of Directors Tuesday that forecast the risks of post-wildfire floods in the Rio de Flag watershed in Flagstaff.
JE Fuller Hydrology modeled different scenarios for rainfall events on hypothetical burn scars on the San Francisco Peaks. The study found flows in Rio de Flag could increase three to six times through downtown Flagstaff, and 31 times in the Fort Valley area.
Northern Arizona University calculated economic losses from those scenarios, such as evacuation costs and lost property values. That study estimated a small fire with a one-time rain event could incur costs of 535 million dollars. For a more severe scenario, costs climb to nearly 3 billion.
The scenarios were calibrated with data from the recent Museum and Pipeline fires. Officials say the modeling will help prioritize areas for forest restoration.
