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Weather service forecasts hot, dry monsoon for northern Arizona

A thunderstorm during the 2013 monsoon season on the San Francisco Peaks north of Flagstaff.
Mike Elson
/
USDA Forest Service
A thunderstorm during the 2013 monsoon season on the San Francisco Peaks north of Flagstaff.

The National Weather Service warns Arizona's monsoon season this year will likely be dry and hot again.

Their monsoon outlook released this week shows numerous cities are already projected to see below-normal precipitation, including Flagstaff, Prescott, Show Low, Lake Havasu and Kingman.

The weather service says there's a four in 10 chance that Arizona's monsoon season will be drier than normal between July and September. They attribute the shift to climate change and above-normal soil that may delay high-pressure onset.

Last year’s monsoon season was notably lackluster. It was the 17th driest in the state since recording started in 1895.

Flagstaff reported a little more than 4 inches of rain in 2023, which is well below the average of about 7.5 inches.