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Weather service forecasts wetter-than-average summer for northern Arizona

A thunderstorm during the 2013 monsoon season on the San Francisco Peaks north of Flagstaff.
Mike Elson
/
USDA Forest Service
A thunderstorm during the 2013 monsoon season on the San Francisco Peaks north of Flagstaff.

The seasonal outlook from the National Weather Service shows a wetter-than-average summer across northern Arizona and the state.

According to the April 17 report, the agency forecasts a 40-50% probability of above-normal precipitation for northeastern Arizona from July to September. This includes Coconino County and portions of Yavapai and Gila counties.

The rest of the state is expected to see up to a 40% chance of increased moisture.

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's seasonal precipitation outlook for July through September 2025.
NWS Climate Prediction Center
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center's seasonal precipitation outlook for July through September 2025.

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff says the setup aligns with a trend where dry winters often set the stage for a wetter monsoon season. It's good news after abnormally low precipitation over the winter and early spring.

However, a recent update from the agency still warns of a likely significant, extended wildfire season across Arizona.

The historically dry northern Arizona winter has made forest officials nervous for the fire season. Conditions improved after March storms brought significant snow and rain to the region.