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Near normal fire potential forecast for northern Arizona, much of the West

Fire personnel with the Coconino National Forest conduct firing operations on the Still Fire near Blue Ridge on Oct. 3, 2023.
USFS
/
Inciweb
Fire personnel with the Coconino National Forest conduct firing operations on the Still Fire near Blue Ridge on Oct. 3, 2023.

The National Weather Service says fire danger across northern Arizona should remain “near normal” over the next few months.

The agency released a fire season outlook Monday, examining March through May. The report uses data on drought, snowpack and anticipated weather conditions to predict fire risk.

Much of the state received near- to above-average precipitation during the current water year, despite a dry winter. However, NWS says snowpack remains below average as the limited storms this year were followed by long, warm, dry stretches.

Drought conditions have improved compared to last year, though. Over a third of Arizona is in moderate or worse drought, down from 99% at this time last year.

Forecasters say spring weather will be critical for the upcoming fire season, with projections showing above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation.