This winter was tied for the sixth least snowy winter in Flagstaff history since record-keeping began.
According to the National Weather Service it matched 1918 for low snowfall.
The dry conditions paired with unprecedented June-like heat last month has local forest managers closely monitoring fire conditions.
KNAU’s Adrian Skabelund spoke with Coconino National Forest Fire Planner Jesse Causer in the woods off of Elden Lookout Road.
ADRIAN SKABELUND: In terms of fire conditions, what are you guys seeing right now?
JESSE CAUSER: Well, like any resident of the southwest and specifically Northern Arizona, we've experienced a very dry winter, and so that's creating a very dry spring. So we did see an unprecedented heat spell here in early March, and that has compressed our seasonal, kind of, normal timelines for fire season up by about four to six weeks.
We're essentially experiencing late April conditions, maybe early May conditions. And so that does compress our timelines a little bit, but it also gives us opportunities to get started with some of our proactive projects like prescribed fire earlier than we would ahead of the potential fire season start.
SKABELUND: Can you compare this past winter to maybe what we would've seen in a typical winter?
CAUSER: So, looking back through all of our data that we manage, the most representative, I think, in recent history would probably be 2006. That was a similar winter where we saw similar conditions this time of year. And so we did have some increased fire behavior earlier into our fire season.
Last year we had a pretty heavy winter and some, and some spring rains that really changed the conversation.
So this feels very different this year than in the last couple years because we did have different — either heavy winter or heavy spring rain events.
And so I think that is a departure for most folks with what they're feeling right now — we're very warm and dry for this time of year.
SKABELUND: And when you say proactive measures, I think a lot of folks also think of things like forest closures and fire restrictions, that kind of thing.
Is that a conversation that's already happening, given the conditions?
CAUSER: Yes, it is. So with the conditions, we started our annual fire restriction weekly meetings that we do with all of our neighboring public land management agencies and our cooperators that help each other manage those conversations.
So yeah, we started that a week ago essentially. So that is ahead of schedule. Normally we would start those in a few weeks, you know, under traditional conditions. But given the way the conditions have gone, we have started them early.
That way we make sure that we're communicating and coordinating between all the programs and that we don't get behind with any need to start those restrictions.
SKABELUND: When you think about, just generally, this fire season, how optimistic or worried are you about what the next six to 12 months is going to look like on the Coconino? Even in terms of just, like, you know, hours being pulled by you guys?
CAUSER: Yeah. With these conditions this early it definitely doesn't feel great.
We are experiencing it earlier than normal. But with weather: the NOAA offices and the professionals there really do, I feel, do a great job in helping give us the best information possible.
It's not outside the realm of possibilities that there will be some weather event that may help take the edge off stuff.
But at the end of the day, the Forest Service has a gigantic fire suppression program. And the Coconino has a very large one and a very well-practiced program.
But it does — this is a compressed start. And so, yeah, it doesn't feel great.
I would much rather it be ‘more snow and moisture’ still this time of year. But those are the cards we're dealt. And so we'll make sure that we're practicing our due diligence like we are and putting all the pieces in play ahead of time so that we're ready for anything that comes our way.
SKABELUND: Jesse, thanks so much for giving me some of your time today.
CAUSER: My pleasure, Adrian.
