Federal water managers say the level of Lake Powell could fall to historic lows by the end of the year amid worsening drought conditions across the Colorado River Basin.
The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation’s newest 24-month study predicts that by December the lake could, for the first time, fall to 3,490 feet, or “minimum power pool,” the lowest level at which Glen Canyon Dam can produce electricity.
In addition, if dry conditions persist officials say by March 2027, Powell could drop to 3,476 feet—the lowest level on record since the lake was filled decades ago, possibly limiting the dam’s ability to release water.
“The basin’s poor hydrologic outlook highlights the necessity for collaboration as the Basin States, in collaboration with Reclamation, work on developing the next set of operating guidelines for the Colorado River system,” said acting Commissioner Scott Cameron in a press release. “Available tools will be utilized and coordination with partners will be essential this year to manage the reservoirs and protect infrastructure.”
At 3,370 feet Lake Powell would reach what’s known as “dead pool” where water would stop regularly flowing through the dam.
In response, since Dec. 1, 2025 managers have been temporarily retaining more water in the lake and say further measures will be necessary if drought conditions continue to worsen.
Meanwhile, Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum says the federal government will impose its own plan on how to manage the Colorado River in the coming decades.
Last week, the seven western states that rely on the river missed a deadline to come to a new water sharing agreement beyond this year.
“Negotiation efforts have been productive; we have listened to every state’s perspective and have narrowed the discussion by identifying key elements and issues necessary for an agreement. We believe that a fair compromise with shared responsibility remains within reach,” said Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum in a press release. “I want to thank the governors of the seven Basin States for their constructive engagement and commitment to collaboration. We remain dedicated to working with them and their representatives to identify shared solutions and reduce litigation risk. Additionally, we will continue consultations with Tribal Nations and coordinate with Mexico to ensure we are prepared for Water Year 2027.”
The Interior Department says the Bureau of Reclamation can’t further delay finalizing new operating guidelines and considerable water-use cuts will be necessary as the river basin becomes more arid.
The agency says a lack of precipitation over the past month has pushed the forecast for water flowing into the Colorado River down 1.5 million acre-feet since January. The loss is equivalent to about 50 feet in elevation in Lake Powell. Hydrologists say the overall inflow for the current water year is now 52% of average.
Rules governing the use of the river expire at the end of the year.
