Environmental groups are sounding the alarm on what they call an “impending crisis” at Glen Canyon Dam.
Last week the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released its 24-month forecast for the levels of Lake Powell and Lake Mead.
It predicted that by Jan. 1, 2026, Powell could drop to 3,538.47 feet, which is just 48 feet above what is known as “minimum power pool,” or the lowest level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate hydropower.
“This underscores the importance of immediate action to secure the future of the Colorado River,” says USBR’s Acting Commissioner David Palumbo. “We must develop new, sustainable operating guidelines that are robust enough to withstand ongoing drought and poor runoff conditions to ensure water security for more than 40 million people who rely on this vital resource.”
Federal officials say their forecast reaffirms the “impacts of unprecedented drought in the Colorado River Basin.”
According to the study, Lake Powell’s level could actually dip below minimum power pool by November 2026.
The Glen Canyon Institute and the Utah Rivers Council point out that as the levels drop, Glen Canyon Dam itself could be a major obstacle in managing Colorado River water for tens of millions of people.
The groups say when the lake’s level is at or below 3,490 feet above sea level, the only way to release water from the dam is through tubes that have limited capacity and were not designed to be its only outlet. The tubes have also suffered prior damage when operated at low levels.
“For too long, the decision makers of the Colorado River have avoided the elephant in the room: Glen Canyon Dam,” says Eric Balken, executive director of Glen Canyon Institute. “Until the dam is bypassed so that it can operate at low levels, the Colorado River will be hamstrung.”
The seven states that rely on the Colorado River continue to negotiate a water-sharing agreement to take place of the current framework that expires at the end of 2026.
“This forecast makes clear that no matter what is agreed to in the interim guideline negotiating room, the plumbing problems at Glen Canyon Dam won’t be solved. We need to stop thinking about those two issues as one problem,” says Zach Frankel, executive director of Utah Rivers Council.
USBR plans to release 7.48 million acre-feet of water from Glen Canyon Dam during the 2026 water year, which runs from Oct. 1, 2025 through Sept. 30, 2026. But officials say if hydrologic conditions worsen the releases could be reduced.
In June, Scott Cameron, the U.S. Interior Department’s acting assistant secretary for water and science, called on the seven Colorado River Basin states to sign on to a new preliminary operations plan by mid-November and reach a final agreement by summer 2026.
“As the basin prepares for the transition to post-2026 operating guidelines, the urgency for the seven Colorado River Basin states to reach a consensus agreement has never been clearer. We cannot afford to delay,” says Cameron. “The health of the Colorado River system and the livelihoods that depend on it are relying on our ability to collaborate effectively and craft forward-thinking solutions that prioritize conservation, efficiency and resilience.”
