It’s been a week since the so-called blue tsunami, when Democrats flipped control of both chambers of the Arizona Legislature and racked up numerous wins across the state and country.
KNAU’s Adrian Skabelund spoke with emeritus political science professor at Northern Arizona University Fred Solop last week about the results.
Editor's note: An abridged version of this interview aired on KNAU Arizona Public Radio on November 10, 2026. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
ADRIAN SKABELUND: It does look like, as more votes roll in, that Republican Congressman Eli Crane is going to hold onto that seat. It was almost a nine-point swing in that Crane won [this time but] beat Nez two years ago by nine points.
What is the message that we can maybe get from such a drastic swing in that race? And what maybe is the message that Crane might be taking from that?
FRED SOLOP: The message that Crane needs to be receiving now is a message that many people across the country are hearing, which is that there's a historic rebuke of Donald Trump's way of running politics.
And I think what we're going to see from here on out, at least for the next two years, is Crane becoming more independent as a legislator and trying to not be as [much of a] staunch a supporter of Donald Trump as he has been in the past.
SKABELUND: In that context, you know, just to the west, Congressman Paul Gosar fairly handily won re-election, and he's obviously been an institution in Mojave County.
What is the difference between the two congressional districts, one in which we've seen a pretty handy re-election on the part of Gosar, the other, Crane, really holding on by fingernails?
SOLOP: That's a great question because both districts appear to be very conservative, very Republican-oriented, and have elected very Republican legislators. One of the differences is that, as you said, Paul Gosar is an institution.
He was MAGA before MAGA.
He was Tea Party before Donald Trump. And that politics resonates with the community. Eli Crane came to office really as a follower of Donald Trump. He wasn't as independent as Paul Gosar.
SKABELUND: Democrats have now flipped the legislature, both houses, and hold the governor's office.
How should folks expect that to change what happens down at the Capitol?
SOLOP: In the short run, there's huge changes. Everybody flips offices. The staff moves from one floor to another.
But what we don't know is how the Democrats are going to rule. There's a very unusual moment here where we have a trifecta: Democratic governor, Democratic House, Democratic Senate.
We haven't had that since [the] 1960s.
The Democrats don't know how to handle that. And it's interesting when you look at the history of how Republicans handled controlling both houses.
They were very mean-spirited in some ways. They did not want to hear what the Democrats had to say. They did not include the Democrats on budget negotiations.
Are the Democrats going to do that to the Republicans? We don't know.
But I would suggest, if I was advising them, they can't be full of retribution. They need to be more inclusive.
And I say this because it's very likely that one of those houses is going to flip in two years. And we're not going to have unified Democratic control beyond this two-year period.
SKABELUND: If you are a state Republican, somebody down at the statehouse, what is the message that Republicans should take after this election?
SOLOP: One message is that the MAGA wing of the Republican Party is not supported in Arizona: we've had MAGA candidate for governor; we had a MAGA candidate for secretary of state; we've had MAGA candidate for attorney general.
They all lost. They need to think with a little more humility about how they're going to navigate the future.
They're still representing their electorate. Their electorate put them into office. But they need to think more broadly beyond their own narrow party agenda to think about what's good for not just their constituents, but for the entire state of Arizona.
SKABELUND: And if you're a Democrat, did voters provide Democrats with a mandate this election?
SOLOP: I think we can say that in Arizona they did send a mandate to our elected officials.
Interestingly, four years ago, it took days before we knew that Katie Hobbs won her election. And now we knew within 30 minutes of the close of the polls that Katie Hobbs won.
There was a resounding win here for not just Katie Hobbs but for all the Democrats going for state-level seats. And so those Democrats have to understand that they do have a mandate for change.
This is a unique two-year period where they can pass a policy agenda. They have very important concerns.
They've been talking about how to make housing more affordable, how to make health care more available, how to protect public schools in Arizona. They have an agenda that they need to move forward with because the future beyond two years is uncertain.
Now is the time.
SKABELUND: And, is there any message that we can take from voters in terms of what ballot proposition statewide passed, versus the candidates that maybe were swept into office?
You know, it seems like at times, maybe it's a demonstration that voters' individual politics can be sometimes very consistent and sometimes a little bit erratic.
SOLOP: Yeah, I think that's a great question. And it also talks about the capacity of voters to really understand what's on the ballot [and] to pay attention. And we do see a distinction being made.
We see that some more extreme elements of the MAGA agenda were not supported by voters. And I'm thinking here about anti-DEI legislation or changes in the election rules to make it more difficult to vote by mail. Also the changes in the funding of public schools.
Those were not accepted by voters.
At the same time, some elements of the Republican agenda were adopted by voters. And I'm thinking about [the] anti-trans ballot initiative, for instance.
That was accepted by voters. And voters want more extreme targeting of people who are involved in drug networks, for instance, crossing the border. So the voters are very smart.
The voters are very educated. They take their job seriously. And they make distinctions between what's on the ballot.
SKABELUND: The state has become purple over the last maybe 10 years. Is it still purple?
Or could Arizona now be considered maybe a blue state?
SOLOP: We are not a blue state. We are still a Republican state in the sense that there are more registered Republicans than Democrats. Republicans have increased their numbers over the last two, four years.
Democrat numbers have shrunk. We are still a Republican state. But what's also increased, however, is the number of independents.
And those independents have shown time and time again that they're not glued to any one ideology. They're not glued to any one party. They're going to weigh candidates on their merits each election.
And they can swing back and forth. They can vote Democratic today for Katie Hobbs, but they could have voted for her opponent four years ago. Those independents are going to be an unknown factor going into the future. So in that sense, we remain purple.
It could be Democrats. It could be Republicans. But Republicans still have the advantage.
SKABELUND: Is there anything you just wanted to mention, anything I should have asked about?
SOLOP: I guess what's on my mind, and I alluded to this, is the understanding that this is a moment in time. Things can change. They've changed rapidly in the past.
They can change rapidly in the future. And I think we're entering a period of instability. Political parties are not the anchor that they once were in our society.
And we have increasing movement toward independent voting and that independence is going to continue to rise. The parties need to figure out how to orient themselves because we still are a two-party political system. But I would also expect, frankly, that we're going to see politics beyond the ballot box.
I wouldn't be surprised if we're seeing demonstrations, protests like we're seeing in Europe, start coming to the United States to an extent we haven't seen recently.
SKABELUND: Fred, thanks so much for giving us some of your time today.
SOLOP: Thank you.
